2009 CRIMECAST Model Enhancements
i) The 2009 CRIMECAST model for the United States is our most extensive, precise, nuanced and highly validated ever.
ii) The model was built using far more police data than ever before, drawn from a broad spectrum of diverse communities across the U.S.
iii) CAP Index’s model is the most nuanced and comprehensive ever. It includes over five dozen new demographic predictors.
(1) Demographic variables include data from the following categories:
(a) Population and housing distributions
(b) Age distributions
(c) People living in group quarters (prisons, colleges, nursing homes, military installations, etc.)
(d) Housing values
(e) Family and household membership
(f) Marital status
(g) Home ownership
(h) Nature of housing unit (attached, detached, multi-family, mobile home, etc.)
(i) Age of housing structure
(j) Time lived in housing unit
(k) Number of vehicles
(l) Income amounts and sources (wages, investments, public assistance, retirement, etc.)
(m) Educational levels
(n) Families/households below poverty level
(o) Employment rates
(p) Means of transportation to work (drive, car pool, public transportation, bike, walk, work from home, etc.)
(q) Travel time to work
(2) The addition of these new demographic predictors has enabled us to better model the differing crime patterns across the U.S.
(a) These divergent patterns stem in part from differing housing stock and transit modalities from region to region, from city to city, urban to suburban, and to rural areas.
iv) The model’s predictions were validated extensively against a broad array of company specific incident history and objective loss reporting data.
v) We undertook this major review of our model to provide the best crime and loss predictions possible in this challenging economic environment.
vi) This model reflects shifting patterns across the country, with crime and loss often extending from urban cores out into the suburbs and surrounding regions.
(1) As a result, the percentages of scores in the two outer CAP categories (0-99 and 800+) have generally tended to decrease to some extent, while the percentages of scores in the middle three CAP categories (100-199, 200-399 and 400-799) have generally tended to increase to some extent.
vii) The CAP model has always been designed with the national average score equaling “100”. This allows our clients to compare any address to a national, state/province, or county/local average objectively and in a quantifiable manner. If crime goes up or down nationwide from one year to the next, the national average is still indexed each year to be 100.
This is the most significant modification of the CRIMECAST model to date. We do not anticipate such substantial methodological changes for future releases at this time