Conventions come to risky areas?
By Gary Stoller, USA TODAY
Nearly all the nation's major convention centers are in neighborhoods where the crime risk is much higher than the national average, a new study by a crime forecasting company reveals.
Of the 25 largest convention centers and exhibit halls, 22 are in neighborhoods where the crime likelihood is at least double the national average, finds the study, which was conducted for USA TODAY by CAP Index of Exton, Pa.
(Boston's FleetCenter, site of this week's Democratic National Convention, didn't make the top 25 list provided by Tradeshow Week.) The area around Chicago's McCormick Place, the country's largest convention facility, has the highest risk — 13 times greater than the national average and eight times that of Cook County. The risk in areas outside convention centers in Detroit and Washington is 10 times greater than the national norm. By contrast, the neighborhoods around Donald E. Stephens Convention Center in Rosemont, Ill., Cleveland's I-X Center and Orlando's Orange County Convention Center have the lowest crime risks. The study's findings, however, don't reveal the actual number of crime incidents.
CAP Index says its crime-risk determinations are 70% to 90% accurate. It forecasts crime by plugging into a computer model a variety of factors, including police statistics, corporate loss reports and demographic information, such as income and education levels, for an area up to three miles away from a convention center. Like other probability formulas, the company's methodology has its limitations, company officials say. It does not take into account some variables, including police force size, amount of security equipment used and current events. Still, the company's crime forecasting is used by the federal government, 21 of the top 25 Fortune 500 companies and lawyers in federal court cases, says CAP Index Vice President Stephen Longo.
"I don't want anyone to think they'll never be safe outside a convention center," says Jon Groussman, president and chief operating officer of the company. "But there are differences in safety levels between neighborhoods. Our study is one tool to assess the risks, and people should take reasonable precautions to mitigate those risks."
About 52 million people will attend North American conventions and trade shows this year, estimates Tradeshow Week, an industry publication. Only a very small percentage are likely to become crime victims, say meeting planners, police, convention center and CAP Index officials.
But convention attendees are "a gold mine for thieves," and many are victimized each year inside and outside facilities, says Kathryn Jurgensen, CEO of Premier Meetings in Irvine, Calif. "Security is at the forefront of my clients' minds," says Jurgensen, who plans events for Toyota, Motorola and other companies.
Convention center officials in Chicago and other cities say their security programs, as well as transportation programs that shuttle visitors to and from hotels, keep attendees safe. Billy Weinberg, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority, which runs McCormick Place, says 73 full-time security personnel work there, and more than 100 additional personnel and 10 to 12 police officers may be present at a major show.
Weinberg says, "I don't want to refute the data, but the typical convention-goers' experience is not reflected in the data." He says no one at McCormick Place can recall a high number of crime incidents involving convention-goers or their property.
Laurence Mulcrone, McCormick Place's security director, says the neighborhood outside the Chicago convention facility has had crime problems in the past. But as dilapidated homes were razed and replaced by new condos and adjacent land bought up by McCormick Place, the crime rate has dropped, he says.
"I'm very confident that the people who are attending conventions are extremely safe," Mulcrone says. "We go to great lengths to ensure safety."
McCormick Place, which attracts 4 million annual visitors, sits largely within the Chicago Police Department's District 1. According to latest Chicago police statistics, there were 3,603 crimes committed in that district during the first six months of this year, about 6% fewer than the year-earlier period. Most crimes involved theft, but there also were 258 violent crimes, including four murders. A small section of McCormick Place is in District 21, where crimes during the first half of this year dropped 2% to 2,259.
Chicago Police Department spokesman David Bayless says there's "a high incidence of theft" in Beat 133, a 20-by-10-block area that includes McCormick Place. The department is unable to determine how many thefts involve convention-goers, he says. Chicago police statistics show that there were 412 criminal incidents, including 349 thefts, in that area during the first six months this year.
McCormick Place statistics, Weinberg says, show that last year there were no murders, rapes or assaults, but the security staff received reports of 54 incidents of theft or attempted theft, 17 of vandalism and 465 of property damage. Some incidents did not occur at the convention center, and crime is suspected in only about 5% of the property damage reports, Mulcrone says.
CAP Index officials say their statistics are not indicative of the level of safety within a convention facility, which may be well protected. The company's crime risk only predicts the likelihood of crime in surrounding areas.
Detroit.
The neighborhood outside Cobo Conference/Exhibition Center ranks second in crime risk, the CAP Index shows. The crime risk is about five times greater than in its entire local county, Wayne County, CAP Index says.
The latest Detroit Police Department statistics show that 1,540 crimes were committed Dec. 29, 2003-July 11, 2004, in Precinct 1, where the facility is located. James Tate, a police public information officer, says that precinct "historically had the lowest amount of crime within the city," and crime citywide has declined in the past few years. This year, crime is on the rise, particularly non-fatal shootings, "a trend going on in a lot of major cities."
John Williams, director of security at the Cobo Center, said he couldn't comment about nearby crime. He directed questions to the local police.
Washington, D.C.
Officer Kenny Bryson, a spokesman for Washington's Metropolitan Police Department, says CAP Index's forecast of a high crime likelihood outside the Washington Convention Center, which opened last year, would be typical of any convention center neighborhood in a big city. Crime is down citywide and in the Third District where the convention center is located. But "we still have a lot of work to do," he says. During the first six months of this year, police statistics show that nearly 4,000 crimes were committed in the Third District, a 17% drop from the year-earlier period.
The site of the new convention center was a hangout for drug dealers years ago, and the neighborhood is in transition, Bryson says. "It's not nirvana now," and visitors should "be aware of the surroundings," particularly at nighttime, he says.
CAP Index says the crime risk in the area near the convention center is nearly three times greater than in the entire district.
A Washington convention center official directed questions to local police.